Why Huawei Ban Is Not a Boon for Open Source Movement
In the United States, Donald Trump recently signed an executive order banning companies from working with entities deemed a risk to national security. In short companies in the United States, or countries that do business in the United States, cannot work with these so called security risks, or they could be locked out of the United States economy. It is not secret that the company Trump is talking about is Huawei. While mostly know for their cell phones — especially the folding Mate smartphone — Huawei also produces laptops and is the undisputed king of 5G cellular networks.
This ban kills Huawei’s business in many ways. Their phones cannot be sold to other markets that do not want to enrage the United States, which then locks them out of some of the most lucrative markets in the world. It also prevents them from used the three most popular software properties: Windows, Apple, and Google. Lastly, countries that want to build their 5G networks today will have to look elsewhere for that technology, meaning literally hundreds of billions of dollars will be lost in future profits to a company that has had the 5G market to themselves.
You can call this ban many things. It’s damaging to the Chinese economy, as well as the United States’ reputation as a fair and open market. It’s economic terrorism from a government that has been reckless with how it cavorts itself abroad. Certainly, it will be devastating to Huawei and its employees, whose futures are now very uncertain.
Of all those things, there is one thing that this ban absolutely is not: a boon to Free Open Source Software (FOSS).
There has been some fanfare online saying that locking Huawei out of the Windows/Google/Apple trifecta means that they will likely end up creating their own open source OS’s for their devices. While I would love to see a massive company, especially one that is based in a communist country, come out as a firebrand for FOSS, this is simply not going to happen, especially when you break down the business model of tech giants like Huawei, as well as the guiding philosophies of the People’s Republic of China.
Control
FOSS is designed to give power back to the consumer. You control your data, and who gets to look at it. By its nature there are not back-doors that allow governments or hackers to get in without you knowing. In west there are even hardware producers, like Librem and Purism, that build their devices to ensure this.
This guiding principle flies in the face of Huawei and other tech giants’ business models. Android phones are designed as data collectors in order to help generate profits for the company that develops the software and other service providers within the ecosystem. In the same way, Huawei’s Windows PC’s utilize Microsoft’s proprietary software, which is designed to keep you buying into Microsoft and its services: Office 365, OneDrive, Skype, the Windows Store.
While Huawei losing out on these USA based systems will no doubt do them great harm, I do not see them deciding to switch to a FOSS business model, especially since Huawei — like all other tech companies — has its own proprietary software lying in wait. It was not long ago that every phone company had their own web browser and email client. The world of advanced feature phones and smartphones was once far more diverse than it is today, where we can now sync one browser across any number of devices and operating systems. Even if they cannot use Android OS, Huawei will still have access to the free kernel on which Android was built. Best case scenario, Huawei debuts an Android clone, running their own software and services. This would introduce new competition into the OS market place. Until now, it has remained fairly stagnate between Android and Apple market shares. Worst case scenario is Huawei debuts a FOSS wolf in sheep’s clothing, pretending to offer freedom and privacy while actually being as data and surveillance hungry as the competition.
Security
The idea of privacy is popular in the west. Most notably, the EU in recent years has passed some of the most aggressive personal privacy laws. Not just window dressing, these laws have teeth, and have resulted in billions of dollars in fines to US tech companies like Google and Microsoft. The US, while having advocated for similar protections, is more of a support in spirit rather that letter sort of government. For examples you need only look to The Patriot Act, sign by George Bush and reauthorized by Barrack Obama, and the Prism Project.
China is very much a surveillance state. It employs human censors that comb the internet and remove content deemed unfit by the Chinese Communist Party. Many apps and web sites that are common place around the world, are missing from the Chinese internet or are replaced with a China-approved clone.
The idea that a company operating in China will suddenly redesign its business model, thwarting the views of the Chinese government in the process, does not hold up when faced with the reality of their situation. Huawei is at its most vulnerable, and is very likely to need assistance from the government in order to stay in business. From the government’s perspective, Huawei can now be used as a lightning rod in order to bolster support of the communist party, and to foment anti-West/American sentiment. That they would let this poster child then rebel against what they believe makes China so great would be a huge misstep for the government and President Xi in particular.
The Uncertain Future
There is an old gambling adage: Don’t bet against the house. So long as Trump holds office — and does not reverse course on the Huawei ban — Huawei is in China’s house. They will be at the mercy of the Chinese government and market. Large companies by design are adverse to risk, making Huawei very unlikely to do anything that ruffles the government’s feathers. This means we are likely to see less freedom and less openness, not more. If FOSS wants a boon, it is going to have to look elsewhere.
